Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Hand Analysis from Weekly Feature 2
I was asked a question about a hand from my most recent Weekly Feature (bit.ly/WeeklyFeature2) and I think it would be useful for some of you to see the thought process/math behind my decision in this spot.
I'm in the bb with J4s 21bbs deep (t1050 effective stacks) facing a minraise to t100. I 3bet shoved thinking I had enough fold equity for jamming to be the play with the best expectation.
Obviously I'm not doing this math in my head in-game, but having done a lot of calcs/range calcs in the past I've gotten a good feel for 3bet jamming expectation vs different opening frequencies + calling ranges. So it's pretty intuitive for me at this point.
i think his range is anywhere from 60-75% - i'm still not really sure.
i expect him to mr call A5s+, KT+, any pair approx.
let's say his opening range is somewhere in the middle ... 67.5%.
stacks were 1050 at start of hand (21bb), villain raises from t50 to t100 and we 3bet shove.
EV CALC FUN!:
71.2% of the time we win the pot. we're winning t100 from the start of the hand.
28.8% of the time we get called for all the chips, and have 34.7% equity.
'All the chips' are t2100.
2100*.347 = t728.7
That's like losing 1050 - 728.7 = t -321.3 from the start of the hand.
71.2% of the time we win t100. 28.8% of the time we lose 321.3.
(0.712)(100) + (.288)(-321.3) = 71.2 - 92.53 = -21.33 chips.
So on average, we lose 21.33 chips from the start of the hand by 3bet shoving. However, by folding, we lose 50 chips from the start of the hand. So shoving has a bit better EV in the hand than folding.
Of course, we do need to consider calling as an option too. I think jamming/calling J4s is kind of close, but I lean towards 3bet shoving vs navtones bc I think he is pretty hard to play against oop postflop - so my gut feeling is that my expectation vs him is worse calling (but probably still better than a fold).
Fwiw, there aren't a lot of players I fold this hand against preflop oop. Opening range would have to be <55%ish. I'd call vs a lot of guys.
Also, check out Mers' E-Book article 'jamming expectation vs a frequent button opener 20bb deep': http://www.husng.com/content/jamming-expectation-against-frequent-button-opener-20bb-deep