Thursday, January 12, 2012
Follow-Up Q&A: A Hand Analysis from WF2
A husng.com member asked:
very interesting topic. i have a few questions... how do you do figure out him to be calling a 3bet shove 28.8% of the time? when i select his range in Stove it gives me a lower %...
also, what is your criteria for deciding when to flat/3bet shove?
to calculate the % of the time villain mr/calls...
(total % of hands villain mr/calls) divided by (total % of hands villain raises pre)
so the way you are doing it, you aren't accounting for the time villain folds pre. see what i mean?
so for this example, it would be: (.195)/(.675) = .288 = 28.8%
it's hard to precisely figure out the EV of comparing all of our different options - flatting, non-allin 3bet, 3bet jam, fold. mainly bc there is a lot more frequencies we need to account for (postflop play) with flatting/nai3b.
based off villain's frequencies, if we understand their meaning well, i think we should be able to get a very strong intuitive feel for the best option though.
like i said in the example, J4s is a hand that is usually going to have high enough expectation to flat oop vs >55%ish pfr frequencies. it's better than folding, but in this example we need to compare it to the options of 3bet shoving and nai-3betting.
a) i decide that J4s has enough expectation to not fold it - so I narrow options down to flat/nai3b/jam.
b) i have a reasonable estimation of villain's pfr and mr/call frequency, and i have an intuitive understanding that jamming J4s 21 bb deep vs those frequencies is a good amount better than folding.
c) i decide that villain is difficult to play postflop, and while i know that flatting J4s is still better than folding - i think villains decent postflop play makes flatting likely lower expectation than 3bet jamming.
d) and i'll always consider nai-3betting, since the risk/reward is so much better if villain has a high fold to 3b %, but i know that this reg has a very high nai-3bet calling % - so that is clearly not the best option in this case.
does that help?