Thursday, January 12, 2012
Follow-Up Q&A: A Hand Analysis from WF2
A husng.com member asked:
QUESTION:
very interesting topic. i have a few questions... how do you do figure out him to be calling a 3bet shove 28.8% of the time? when i select his range in Stove it gives me a lower %...
also, what is your criteria for deciding when to flat/3bet shove?
thanks!
ANSWER:
to calculate the % of the time villain mr/calls...
(total % of hands villain mr/calls) divided by (total % of hands villain raises pre)
so the way you are doing it, you aren't accounting for the time villain folds pre. see what i mean?
so for this example, it would be: (.195)/(.675) = .288 = 28.8%
it's hard to precisely figure out the EV of comparing all of our different options - flatting, non-allin 3bet, 3bet jam, fold. mainly bc there is a lot more frequencies we need to account for (postflop play) with flatting/nai3b.
based off villain's frequencies, if we understand their meaning well, i think we should be able to get a very strong intuitive feel for the best option though.
example:
like i said in the example, J4s is a hand that is usually going to have high enough expectation to flat oop vs >55%ish pfr frequencies. it's better than folding, but in this example we need to compare it to the options of 3bet shoving and nai-3betting.
so:
a) i decide that J4s has enough expectation to not fold it - so I narrow options down to flat/nai3b/jam.
b) i have a reasonable estimation of villain's pfr and mr/call frequency, and i have an intuitive understanding that jamming J4s 21 bb deep vs those frequencies is a good amount better than folding.
c) i decide that villain is difficult to play postflop, and while i know that flatting J4s is still better than folding - i think villains decent postflop play makes flatting likely lower expectation than 3bet jamming.
d) and i'll always consider nai-3betting, since the risk/reward is so much better if villain has a high fold to 3b %, but i know that this reg has a very high nai-3bet calling % - so that is clearly not the best option in this case.
does that help?
thanks!
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Sorry may be a dumb question,
ReplyDeletebut I don't understand why would our EV of folding be -50 in this hand as shown in your calculation
Shouldn't our EV of folding be count as 0 as the 50 chips are put into the pot before the hand and are considered as dead money in the pot.
Thanks.
@Hang:
ReplyDeleteNot a dumb question at all.
I'll quote Mers from FT since he helped me to understand this anyway:
"The folding = 0EV thing is just a frame of reference.
You can say "consider the equity from folding breakeven. Now compare that equity against other options". You can also say, as I often do in my calculations, "compare not gaining or losing any chips from the start of the hand breakeven. Now compare the equity from other actions against that".
Different frames of reference work better for different situations, for example, if you're calculating how much equity you need to call a river bet, it's much better to just compare to folding directly, and call folding 0EV. If you're calculating whether a 3-bet shove is good with 98s, maybe you don't want to compare vs folding because you're never considering folding anyway."
Hope that helps.
Thanks for your reply.
ReplyDeleteYour blog is great
Enjoy reading it so much.
Keep up the good work !!
@Hang:
ReplyDeleteThanks, I really appreciate that.